Just some stuff I did yesterday in case anyone is interested.
Just for fun, I decided to do a bit of election theorycrafting on my own, based on trusted polls, in an attempt to determine whether Obama really will win tomorrow, based solely on the numbers.
If you assume that each candidate will win the states that they lead by 10 or more points in polls, Obama gets 238 EVs, while McCain gets 118 EVs, with 182 toss-up EVs. If you assume that each candidate will win states that they lead by 8 or more points in polls, Obama gets 264 EVs, while McCain gets 132 EVs, with 142 toss-up EVs.
In the second scenario, those 142 toss-up EVs are from 12 states. 6 of those favor McCain, and 6 of those favor Obama. The ones that favor McCain are below:
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| Just so you know, this data was all taken from www.electoral-vote.com so this data is based on the polls that they use, which you can find by visiting their website. They only use trusted, reliable polls, so this isn't just data that was pulled out of some Obama lover's ass. |
Code:
STATE LEAD EVs
Missouri 1 11
North Dakota 1 3
Indiana 2 11
Arizona 4 10
Georgia 4 15
Montana 4 3
TOTAL 53 |
Now, the ones that favor Obama:
Code:
STATE LEAD EVs
Colorado 7 9
Nevada 6 5
Ohio 5 20
Virginia 5 13
Florida 4 27
North Carolina 2 15
TOTAL 89 |
270 EVs is a win, and with the assumption that the candidates will both win all states that they are more than 8 points ahead in, Obama only needs 6 more to win, while McCain needs 138 more. All of the states listed above add up to 142 EVs. That means, basically, that McCain would pretty much have to win all of the states above to win, including the ones that Obama has a decent lead in (such as Colorado, with his 7 point lead). If Obama manages to at LEAST get the state with his best lead, Colorado, he wins, no matter how many of the rest McCain wins.
Pretty much, throw a dart at a dart board, if you hit the dart board, the wall, the ceiling, or the floor, Obama wins. If you hit a platypus or the moon, McCain wins.