Well if you're including expansions, Dragonborn comes out tomorrow for PC...

I don't think ESO will work out. Sure, they've got all the lore and flavor of the Elder Scrolls series behind it, but people will realize that it's not very "Skyrimy" (or "Morrowindy" or "Obliviony"); by necessity, the unrestrained character growth that's become a trademark of the series will be limited in the name of balance. People will platteu, get bored, and leave.