Then you're not calling the event properly (make sure it's triggered right, or Called, and if there's a switch or something involved make sure it's in the proper state)

Even if 0009:HP is zero, it will give you the first "danger" picture, and if it's 40000000, it'll give you the "fine" picture

I also still don't understand why you are erasing the picture first, you don't need to erase the picture unless you, in fact, don't want to show anything. If you're just changing Picture 1, just put a new picture in slot 1.


Edit: Easiest way to test it out is to just make a test map, with a cat or something that displays your picture. That way everything's completely under your control and you can see what's going on a lot easier.