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Posted 2003-09-29, 12:29 PM in reply to Titusfied's post "Probability Riddle"
I'm going to end the confusion here. This has gone on far too long.

The reason it's not 50% odds is because before you are shown which door is not the car, you pick one, thus eliminating it from the choice.

If one door were eliminated before you selected anything (i.e. selected from 3 instead of 2) then of the remaining two doors, there would be a 50% chance of selecting the car.

The thing that unevens the odds, however, is the fact that you removed one door from those allowed to be showed to you. The picture represents that identifying that in each case, 2/3rds of the time, the car can be obtained by switching doors.
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Medieval Bob enjoys the static noises of ten television sets simultaneously tuned to 412.84 MHzMedieval Bob enjoys the static noises of ten television sets simultaneously tuned to 412.84 MHz
 
 
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