Chatbox log - 2008-11-04 - Zelaron Gaming Forum

[15:54] Chruser: I do perceive potentially ironic and insulting repercussions from excessive adamancy prior to a deterministic victory for Obama, but still, where does his "chance" of victory reside?

[15:54] Chruser: In all of the polls being wrong?

[15:54] !King_Amazon!: If you look at the numbers, it's pretty easy to see that McCain has barely a shot in hell at winning

[15:55] !King_Amazon!: The only reason it isn't obvious to everyone that Obama will win is because the media doesn't want to portray it that way

[15:55] D3V: I would say he probably has more like a 35% chance of winning.

[15:55] Chruser: So if McCain wins, what would be the most likely source of misprojection?

[15:55] !King_Amazon!: A close race is a lot more "interesting" and they get more viewers

[15:55] Chruser: Hmm.

[15:55] !King_Amazon!: Polls are not exact

[15:55] D3V: That is true, they have been blasting about McCain alld ay.

[15:55] D3V: all day*

[15:55] System: Thanatos has joined the chat

[15:55] Thanatos: WELL HAIII

[15:55] D3V: Ignorance multiplies in droves, and america is full of ignorance. I wouldn't say his chances are impossible.

[15:55] !King_Amazon!: D3v, if you take every state that Obama has more than an 8 point lead in the polls and give them to him, he only needs 6 more electoral votes to win

[15:55] D3V: WEEEEEEELLLLLLLL HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

[15:55] !King_Amazon!: That's not much of a stretch

[15:56] Thanatos: lol

[15:56] D3V: I would say the polls are only a 'gist' of what everyone actually feels.

[15:56] !King_Amazon!: McCain would have to not only win all of the states favoring him, but win all of the states favoring obama by less than 7 points

[15:56] !King_Amazon!: If Obama wins a single one, he wins the election

[15:56] D3V: I've never been polled. Non of my direct family have ever been polled, none of my friends, classmates, teachers anyone that i've asked have ever been polled.

[15:57] !King_Amazon!: Not to mention polls have a republican bias, generally

[15:57] D3V: Now, that is true. Any of the states up for grabs swings in his favor it's virtually over.

[15:57] D3V: yes, they call the old people that sit at home all day.

[15:57] !King_Amazon!: And they don't call cell phones

[15:57] !King_Amazon!: www.electoral-vote.com

[15:58] D3V: true.

[15:58] !King_Amazon!: look at the "strong democrat" vs the "Strong GOP" states

[15:58] D3V: mhm.

[15:58] !King_Amazon!: Obama is starting off with 238 EVs by default

[15:59] Thanatos: that is orgasmic

[15:59] !King_Amazon!: I mean, while it is possible that McCain can win, it's just so incredibly unlikely that I doubt it's 35% chance

[15:59] !King_Amazon!: If I were being unbiased, I would say maybe a 10% chance

[15:59] D3V: 270ftw right?

[15:59] !King_Amazon!: But that's being kinda nice

[15:59] !King_Amazon!: Right

[15:59] D3V: Hm.

[15:59] !King_Amazon!: hang on, I'll post a nifty thread

[15:59] D3V: We'll see, i'm not going to be excited until they declare him the winner.

[15:59] Thanatos: okay school time

[15:59] !King_Amazon!: I did some number crunching yesterday

[16:00] Thanatos: cya obama lovers

[16:00] D3V: cya nig

[16:00] D3V: WELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL BAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

[16:01] System: Thanatos has left the chat

[16:01] Chruser: Palin for president.

[16:02] D3V: Hahaha.

[16:04] !King_Amazon!: http://zelaron.com/forum/showthread....923#post658923

[16:07] System: !King_Amazon! has left the chat

[16:08] D3V: LOL

[16:08] D3V: Palin

[16:08] System: !King_Amazon! has joined the chat

[16:08] Chruser: Will Ron Paul win if I hit a Platypus on the Moon?

[16:08] !King_Amazon!: Probably

[16:08] !King_Amazon!: Maybe even nader

[16:08] D3V: hmmmmm....

[16:09] !King_Amazon!: Not 35% :P

[16:10] !King_Amazon!: There might be a 35% chance that it will be close

[16:10] D3V: that's my guestimation and i'm sticking to it.

[16:11] !King_Amazon!: probably about a 60% chance that it's a landslide

[16:11] !King_Amazon!: 5% McCain wins

[16:11] !King_Amazon!: Then again, it's anyone's guess right now

[16:12] System: !King_Amazon! has left the chat

[16:12] Chruser: How accurate have polls been in past elections?

[16:12] D3V: Now very.

[16:12] D3V: not very much so* Kerry was ahead in all polls until election day.

[16:18] System: !King_Amazon! has joined the chat

[16:18] !King_Amazon!: D3v!

[16:18] !King_Amazon!: wrong

[16:18] !King_Amazon!: sec

[16:19] D3V: He slipped slightly in the few days before, but was still ahead nationally last I remember

[16:19] !King_Amazon!: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...h-2004-all.png

[16:19] !King_Amazon!: national polls mean nothing

[16:20] !King_Amazon!: we don't vote as a nation, we vote as states

[16:20] !King_Amazon!: http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pr...h-2008-all.png

[16:20] !King_Amazon!: that's this election

[16:20] !King_Amazon!: look at the difference

[16:20] !King_Amazon!: realize how much McCain is going to get owned

[16:21] System: Chruser has left the chat

[16:21] D3V: I meant nationally as an average*

[16:21] D3V: You are showing me a chart though from '04 that proves my point.

[16:21] D3V: the margain is just larger this time around.

[16:21] !King_Amazon!: Anyway, electoral-college.com got all but like, 2 states? right last election

[16:22] D3V: mhm.

[16:22] !King_Amazon!: it doesn't prove your point at all. That up and down at the end is like 2 days

[16:22] D3V: I'm confident Obama will win, i'm just skeptical.

[16:22] !King_Amazon!: the election was back and forth the whole time

[16:22] D3V: eh.

[16:23] System: Chruser has joined the chat

[16:23] Chruser: I see trends of convergence!

[16:23] D3V: heh.

[16:24] !King_Amazon!: actually, electoral-vote.com was 98% correct last election

[16:24] !King_Amazon!: They missed one state

[16:24] !King_Amazon!: Indiana

[16:24] !King_Amazon!: lols

[16:25] !King_Amazon!: point is, even if they were only 75% right this election, Obama's projected lead is so far beyond McCain that he would still win

[16:25] !King_Amazon!: none of this matters anyway, Obama will be shot within a year and our country will die in a great big fire of STUPID

[16:26] D3V: Hah.

[16:26] D3V: I honestly don't think that he will be assassinated if elected.

[16:26] D3V: Our secret service is too good these days to allow something like that to happen.

[16:27] D3V: During the Obama rally, I had noticed their vehicles more than 10 miles from where he was to speak.

[16:27] !King_Amazon!: Hope you're right

[16:28] D3V: I hope so too...

[16:28] System: Chruser has left the chat

[16:28] D3V: I figure about 10 attempts if he wins, directly after the election between now and January.

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[16:34] System: !King_Amazon! has left the chat

[16:39] System: Chruser has joined the chat

[16:39] Chruser: How many attempts have there been on W? One?

[16:40] D3V: Actually, I have no clue.

[16:40] D3V: All of the ignorant 'necks that would actually be stupid enough to try and assassinate a President all like Bush.

[16:41] D3V: I've been hearing from some of my "racist" ... friends, well not even friends, but racist kids that I know that are talking about vandalizing areas around Jacksonville if Obama is elected, and the same is going to happen around the country.

[16:45] System: Chruser has left the chat

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[16:45] !King_Amazon!: I don't think anyone has attempted to assassinate Bush

[16:45] !King_Amazon!: At least as far as I know

[16:47] D3V: they may have just kept it quiet all these years, who knows.

[16:47] D3V: Nothing too legitimate i'd imagine.

[16:49] System: Chruser has joined the chat

[16:49] Chruser: No, there was an attempt three years ago in Georgia, but it's the only one I've heard about.

[16:49] Chruser: http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/eu...ade/index.html

[16:49] D3V: Oh yes, there the guy threw a grenade towards his podium.

[16:50] D3V: I remember about that now.

[16:50] !King_Amazon!: Too bad they failed.

[16:52] System: !King_Amazon! has left the chat

[16:52] D3V: hahaha...

[16:52] D3V: As much as I disagree with every aspect of Bush, I still don't think he should be assassinated.

[16:52] D3V: Impeached? Possibly. But murdered? No... nobody deserves to be killed...

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[17:10] Chruser: Especially not Hitler! Poor guy. :(

[17:10] Chruser: Although self-inflicted death doesn't really count under the circumstances, I surmise.

[17:12] D3V: I guess you could look at it that way.

[17:12] D3V: I think Hitler in permanent solitary confinement would make him suffer more than just executing him.

[17:17] Chruser: I hear that being dead is pretty painful.

[17:17] Chruser: It's like time freezes locally, and that sensation of excruciating pain at the moment of death lasts forever in what seems to be a conscious experience.

[17:18] Chruser: It was proven with Ronald Mallett's time machine.

[17:19] D3V: really? I thought when your senses died you have no concept of.. anything?

[17:20] D3V: and hence no motor functions working anymore, how can you even have any concious-like experiences?

[17:24] D3V: I ponder about things like this too much, even our existence as a species, organisms living amongst so many things we cannot comprehend or even remotely understand, randomly will come across my thoughts occasionally.

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